Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Rosenthal: Forward Thinker

posted by BH

Sondog and I, for quite a while, have enjoyed the nonsensical ravings of Ken Rosenthal, Senior Baseball Writer for Foxsports.com and frequent contributor to the Sporting News. For some reason, I have had the feeling for the past three or so years that Rosenthal has either a) had an intern from a nearby high school ROP program write all his pieces, b) watched Sportscenter from time to time and based columns on information learned there, or c) simply ripped off other writers' ideas. In his latest offerning on the Sporting News website (which he ran on FOXsports.com two weeks ago), Rosenthal documents the most overpaid/underpaid athletes in baseball. I'm pretty sure this piece falls into the intern written category. Maybe Rosenthal wrote it, but if so, it had to have been done on a laptop while ol' Ken was on the toilet. First of all, the subject is soooooo played. I didn't have to read it to know Chan Ho Park would be at #1 and Eric Milton would be at #2. Secondly, it's just so blah.

It's all about value for general managers as they construct their payrolls to try for maximum return on every dollar. But when judging which players are the most overpaid and most underpaid, keep a couple of things in mind.

1) Players with long-term injuries shouldn't count. Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell and Braves lefthander Mike Hampton are making millions while on the disabled list, but it's not right to kick 'em when they're down.

Um, yes it is. For the purposes of this exercize, it absolutely is. Of course figuring in a player's durability goes into deciding whether or not a player should receive a big contract. Also, half your column is based on kicking guys when they're down.



2) Players with between zero and six years of service time should be excluded. The salaries of players in the zero to three category are controlled by the clubs. The salaries of three- to six-year players, though inflated by arbitration, are not determined by the open market.

I'll remember that.

Most Overpaid

Chan Ho Park, RHP, Padres, $15.3 million. Retire the trophy -- the free-agent contract the Rangers awarded Park after the 2001 season (five years, $65 million) is the worst in major league history. Park, 32, won a grand total of 26 games in the first four years of the deal. The Rangers traded him to the Padres last season.

No shit. Chan Ho Park. Well done. So far, I'm positive you're not earning your paycheck.

Eric Milton, LHP, Reds, $9.8 million. The Reds signed Milton, 30, to a three-year, $25.5 million free-agent contract the year after he allowed 43 homers for the Phillies. Surprise! Milton, moving from one hitters park to another, allowed another 40 homers last season and posted a 6.47 ERA. He looks better this season yet still allowed five homers in his first three starts.

Again, no shit.

Jason Kendall, C, A's, $11.57 million. Kendall, who turns 32 in June, posted the lowest on-base plus slugging percentage of any American League player last season and threw out the lowest percentage of basestealers in the A.L. as well.

I was kind of shocked by this one. Yeah, his OPS was weak last year, but he was hitting out of the leadoff spot, and had an OBP of .345. Not horrid. OPS is sort of a weak stat when evaluating a leadoff guy. His goal is to not make an out, right? Yeah, the A's are paying a bit for Kendall, but I kind of get the feeling Rosenthal wanted to put him on this list, and was going to find any number that would let him do so. Seriously. You putting together an overpaid list and you come at me with OPS? The cash concious Billy Beane is not going to bring a guy in unless he's worth the money.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B, Mets, $8.058 million. Matsui is the first high-priced Japanese position player to flop in the majors. Injuries slowed him last season, but it's his inability to adjust to the North American game that has made him a bust.

Okay, everybody. Let's go back to Ken's rule #2: "Players with between zero and six years of service time should be excluded." Still, his salary only ranks sixth on the Mets and makes up 8% of the payroll on a team whose spending ranks 5th in baseball. I don't look at it as a travesty. It's a lot to pay for a guy with a.267 BA, 10 HR's, 67 RBI's, and a .320 OBP, but they didn't really know what they were getting with this guy. With that, let's move on.

Most underpaid

These are pretty formulaic, mostly involving guys who have had big years that no one expected them to have, and evaluating them based on contracts they signed before the turned into great players. David Ortiz, Chris Carpenter, and Melvin Mora make the list and fall into such a cherrypicking category. The other two are:

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Padres, $4.5 million. Love that San Diego discount. Hoffman, 38, is earning less than half of what his Blue Jays' counterpart, lefty B.J. Ryan, will average in his new contract. Sure, Hoffman is eight years older than Ryan, but he began the season with 436 career saves to Ryan's 42 -- and still is going strong.

It's hard to take this evaluation seriously, especially when Rosenthal has cited the hometown discount. Seems too easy.

Tony Clark, 1B, Diamondbacks, $1.034 million. OK, he lost his starting job, but that's only because the Diamondbacks are committed to Conor Jackson. Clark, who turns 34 in June, hit 30 homers last season, then re-signed for two years at a club-friendly price.

This is my favorite. At this point, the D-Backs are paying to have Tony Clark sit the bench, yet Rosenthal says he is underpaid. Um, I'm as valuable to the D-Backs as Clark at this point. Seriously, at this point, he's a bench player. And an expensive one at that. If you're going to evaluate a guy's current contract based on what he's done in the past, the Reds are getting quite a deal with Rich Aurillia. $1.3 Million for a guy who hit 37 homers just four years ago?

Mr. Rosenthal. I don't know how you got your job.


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